Institute for ASI Resilience
Institute for ASI ResilienceGeneva
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Sources

Sources · continuously maintained

Every figure. Every quote. With the date of the last verification.

The book was printed as of a cutoff date, and its evidence has been checked. Here it appears with the date it was last checked against the primary source. Whoever doubts can check for themselves.

The verification desk

This list begins with the evidence checked against the primary sources in August 2026. It grows with every check. Where a claim did not hold up to verification, that's stated here — not in a footnote.

ClaimWhoSourceCheckedResult
Extinction probability 10–20 % in 30 yearsGeoffrey HintonBBC Radio 4, Today, Dec. 27, 2024Aug. 22, 2026confirmed
10–20 % for "something terrible happening," quoting HintonElon MuskCannes Lions, June 19, 2024Aug. 22, 2026clarified — not extinction
25 % "things go really, really badly"Dario AmodeiAxios, Sept. 17, 2025Aug. 22, 2026confirmed — explicitly not defined as extinction
Median 5 % extinction from future AI2,778 AI researchersGrace et al., Expert Survey on Progress in AI, 2023Aug. 22, 2026confirmed
Protection against sophisticated and state-level insiders explicitly outside the scope of protectionAnthropicResponsible Scaling Policy, section 4.2, footnote 11Aug. 23, 2026confirmed, wording checked
"We're definitely going to build a bunker before we release AGI"Ilya Sutskever, 2023 internalKaren Hao, Empire of AI; excerpt The Atlantic, May 18, 2025Aug. 23, 2026confirmed, no denial
$27.0 million personal security for one person, fiscal year 2024Meta PlatformsSEC, Form DEF 14A, "Other Compensation"Aug. 23, 2026confirmed · fiscal year 2025 pending
79 of 100: sabotage of its own shutdown mechanismPalisade ResearchBlog July 2025, peer-reviewed version January 2026Aug. 22, 2026confirmed
Doubling cadence of autonomously completed task lengthMETRmetr.org, ongoing measurement seriesAug. 22, 2026confirmed
Blackmail rate in manufacturer testsAnthropicAgentic Misalignment report, June 2025—under review — rate not conclusively verified
What the verification changed. The widespread claim "Musk names 20 % extinction probability" does not hold up to verification. Musk spoke of 10–20 % for "something terrible happening," quoting Hinton in the process. The verifiable version is the stronger one: a Nobel laureate puts the probability that his own work will wipe out humanity at ten to twenty percent.

A source missing? A claim wrong?

Then that's an error, and it needs correcting. Write to us with a citation. Whoever topples a claim gets named.

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Appendix F of the book contains the full list sorted by chapter. This page continues it.